Optimism among UK businesses has fallen to a 20-year low, hitting depths not seen since comparable data began in 1992, according to the latest Business Trends report from Bristol-based accountants and business advisers BDO LLP.
BDO’s Optimism Index, which predicts business performance two quarters ahead, suggests the economy will continue to contract at the start of 2013. The index fell to 89.1 in August from 93.1 in July. This is the sixth consecutive month that the data has registered a drop, with a four-point plunge from 93.1 in July. Business confidence is now at its lowest level since the Business Trends indices began in 1992, and significantly below the crucial 95 mark which would indicate a return to growth.
BDO’s Output Index – which predicts short-run turnover expectations – has also fallen sharply, to 90.8 in August from 93.9 in July, reaching its lowest point for 40 months. This drop neutralises hopes of recovery in the short-term. This is crystallised by data from the UK’s all important service sector – which makes up more than three-quarters of the UK’s economy – which registered a steep drop over the last month, to 92.2 in August from 95.1 in July.
Mirroring the decline in the Optimism and Output indices, BDO’s Employment Index fell to 92.1 in August. With the private sector unlikely to absorb further forthcoming public sector job cuts, conditions for UK job seekers are unlikely to improve before the end of the year.
Graham Randall, Partner, BDO LLP in Bristol, commented: “The sluggish economic environment continues to elicit zigzagging business sentiment, with confidence now at its lowest level since Business Trends began nearly 20 years ago.
“The Government’s efforts to cut current spending may not be working out quite as planned, though we believe that the strategy in essence remains correct. But we have long been concerned that the cuts to investment spending were too drastic and that steps to redress this have been taken too slowly. We welcome positive signs that the government now wishes to boost its investment in UK infrastructure.”
