CBRE has released data from its latest Scotland Property Quarterly report, revealing that despite progressive improvement during the first three quarters of 2014, total returns for Scottish commercial property in the final quarter fell back a little. The annual total return to the end of December 2014 was 12.4%, down from 12.9% at the end of Q3, however this is still well ahead on the annual return in 2013 of 7.3%.
The minor reduction in returns in the final quarter appears largely due to a slight easing of capital growth across all Scottish real estate sectors. In contrast, rental growth remained stable during the quarter and resulted in modest but positive growth during the year as a whole, the first time this has been achieved since 2008.
The report from the leading property consultant also highlights that the strongest performing sector in Scotland continues to be industrials, with a total return in Q4 of 4.2% and an annual return for 2014 of 17.9%. This is also the sixth successive quarter of capital growth for the sector. In comparison, offices returned 11.6% for the full year with retail at 10.6%.
The fourth quarter of 2014 saw further reordering in the relative performance of different cities and sectors across Scotland. The biggest changes have been in Aberdeen, where annual total returns are down by around four percentage points for both offices and industrial. For now, however, Aberdeen offices continue to outperform the All Property total return. Despite this, returns are likely to fall further due to the low oil price hitting what had been a very active occupier market.
Industrials led the way at a city level, with Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen posting returns for 2014 of close to 18%. Both the Edinburgh and Glasgow office markets posted positive returns in 2014 with Edinburgh now the best performing office market in Scotland. Retail remains the perennial underperforming sector, with only the market in Aberdeen posting above average returns at 15%.
Following the ‘No’ outcome of the Scottish Referendum, the investment market in Scotland enjoyed a strong final quarter, pushing total investment sales for the year to £3.04billion. A plethora of shopping centre sales accounted for almost £1billion of that figure. In addition sales of both offices (£867m) and industrials (£413m) were well ahead of the totals achieved over the past few years.
Aileen Knox, senior director from CBRE, commented on the report: “It is heartening to see investment activity for the full year exceeding the totals for 2013 and investment in Scottish property in 2014 is the highest it has been since 2007. It is also interesting to note there is little, if any, evidence of September’s independence referendum within the data for this year; a timely reminder ahead of May’s UK General Election that political events can have minimal market impacts.”