Global property company Colliers International’s 17th Midsummer Retail Report, launched today, has painted an improving picture for high streets, forecasting that the next seven years will see a gradual recovery to the peak level of 2006. Asking the question, Is the High Street dead?, the report which analyses the current state of the retail property market and what is in store for UK retailers, predicts a fall in the number of empty shops, from its current level of 12 per cent of total floor space to about 7 per cent by 2020.
Tom Johnston, director and head of retail with Colliers International in Scotland, said: “Scotland’s high streets are not dead but we’re at a critical stage and they need to be reinvented, and not just for retail.
“The next few years will determine the future of our high streets and we urgently need to create the right environment, which will allow these areas to find their new place in the community. For too long we’ve taken the heart out of these communities and as offices, schools, local government and retailers have dispersed, people no longer have a reason to come back.
“By providing a framework conducive to the rebuilding of the hearts of our communities, we can create affordable housing, family homes, leisure facilities, retail and other core services, such as medical and dental practices, that will create this momentum.
“However, this can only be achieved through a level-headed review of recent damaging changes to non-domestic rates policy, alongside a more flexible approach to planning. In particular, planning authorities must support a greater mix of uses. Without such moves and other innovative ideas, such as free parking weekends and compulsory purchase orders to kick-start such regeneration, we’re unlikely to see any significant inroads being made to restore our town centres.”
Colliers International predicts that the recovery in Scotland’s retail will be selective, with high streets facing increasing competition from larger prime retail malls.
Tom Johnston continued: “While reinventing the high street must be brought to the top of the agenda, high street retailers must also step up their game, so that they can compete with prime large malls. Many high streets are boring, compared to malls, and we need to give people additional reasons to return.
“There are lessons to be learned for the high streets from prime covered malls. These have successfully positioned themselves as draw-destinations, by offering a wide range of uses, activities and events, beyond just retail, all of which are specifically designed to increase dwell time.”
Mark Charlton, Colliers International head of research and forecasting, explained: “We forecast that the long delayed recovery in the retail market will start in 2014 but be focused on the big centres and smaller conveniences locations because the internet is forcing retailers to concentrate on larger ‘showroom’ stores in fewer locations.”
Scotland’s retail landscape – key findings:
John Duffy, director, head of in town retail Scotland for Colliers International, said: “We’re likely to see a new wave of retail development, which will start in 4-5 years’ time. However, the focus of such investment will be in the major regional centres such as intu Braehead, where a masterplan planning application, incorporating a significant extension to intu Braehead Shopping Centre, has recently been lodged.
“High street vacancy rates are beginning to plateau and coupled with a slow-down in corporate failures, we expect a less negative impact on the high street than in recent years. Our research also suggests internet retailing will be flatlining at 20 per cent of all non-food sales by 2020. As a result, online sales will no longer be as much of a threat to high street, as successful retailers will by then have aligned their internet and property strategies.
“The casual dining market continues to blossom, with Nandos, Carluccio’s, Frankie & Bennys, Wagamama, Yo! Sushi and Tesco-owned Giraffe supplemented by coffee operators Costa, Starbucks and Nero.
“Value and discount retailers are also continuing to expand, with 99p Stores entering the Scottish market, where Poundworld, Discount UK, Poundland, B & M and Home Bargains already have a growing presence.”
