The amount of floorspace transacted rebounded in Q3 2011, with nearly 7m sq ft being recorded, according to DTZ Research’s Property Times UK Industrial report, which covers the market for properties over 50,000 sq ft. This is up from 5.6m sq ft in Q2 2011 and is the highest quarterly level in the last 12 months. The manufacturing sector continued to increase its share of take-up of industrial and logistics space in Q3 2011, Since Q3 2010, take-up from the manufacturing sector has increased from 10% to 34%.
Despite the wider economic turmoil and a shortage of grade A stock, occupiers are continuing to make decisions about property, capitalising on the opportunity to acquire good space at a reasonable price in the face of hardening incentives.
The report found that prime stock is relatively scarce and in some regions is now in very short supply. New stock is only coming to the market in the form of pre-let or pre-sale schemes. These are now the prevalent method of securing new space in a difficult environment for new supply.
Simon Lloyd, Head of Industrial and Logistics at DTZ said: “It is great to see more demand from manufacturing companies, much of which is fuelled by the automotive and precision engineering sectors. However, as a result of the wider economic turmoil, occupiers remain cautious, which is reflected in the reduced take up of larger buildings especially preleasing solutions which require more forward planning. However, the market is reaching an inflection point, where the continued shortage of space will increase the probability of rental growth in the near future, stimulating speculative development.”
The report highlights that there was little change in the rental outlook in Q3, with average growth forecast of 1.4% pa throughout the 2011-15 period. Investment levels rose marginally in Q3, with investment in the Greater London and South East areas increasing from 31% in 2011 Q2 2011 to 54% of total invested stock in Q3 2011 – its highest level since 2001.
In the West Midlands after a strong Q2 2011 which was enhanced by the 700,000 sq ft letting to Amazon at Rugeley, activity in the West Midlands was subdued during Q3 2011. It was below the long-term average of 1m sq ft, with the largest letting at 240,000 sq ft.
Simon Lloyd commented: “Whilst the Q3 figures show a reduced take-up level compared with the previous quarters, the underlying trend remains positive. Q2 was enhanced by the leasing of the 700,000 sq ft Flair at Rugeley by Amazon, and the last period’s take-up was more a reflection of the amount of prime availability in the region. Indeed, a number of buildings are now either under offer, or have good interest in them, so we are likely to see enhanced take-up in Q4. As most new requirements will need to be satisfied by build to suit projects, future take-up is therefore likely to generate rental growth.”
Martin Davis, Head of UK Research at DTZ added: “Continuing economic uncertainty has been taking its toll on occupier demand, but underlying activity is still chipping away at the shrinking amount of speculative space available. While the manufacturing sector is facing challenges in the immediate future, the fast changing retail environment could be a fertile source of demand for logistics property going forward.”
